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lendapg What America Can Gain if Trump Goes to China

data de lançamento:2025-03-27 10:36    tempo visitado:143

President Trump reportedly wants to visit China within his first 100 days in office. While the White House has not yet announced any details, planning for the trip may already be underway. The Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping is unlikely to agree to a date until it is confident of a positive outcomelendapg, and an escalation of the current tariff battle could derail the meeting altogether.

Americans should welcome talks between Mr. Trump and his biggest rival. We should not expect, nor should American negotiators seek, a grand bargain that tries to address numerous unrelated economic and security issues. Instead, Mr. Trump and his negotiators should attempt to make progress on a discrete set of objectives that advance American interests. Whatever the outcome, this is not a Nixon-in-China moment. The geopolitical landscape is radically different from that of the early 1970s. Americans should look beyond the bluster to what Mr. Trump could really accomplish.

The timing is opportune for this kind of focused negotiation. While China is a formidable strategic competitor, it is not in a position of unquestioned strength. It faces significant economic challenges, including a volatile real estate market, mounting government debt, weak consumer spending, a rapidly aging population and a slowdown in growth. This should give Mr. Trump leverage, but not as much as some experts expect. Mr. Xi views China’s domestic problems as short-term irritants and considers the United States and the American-led world order to be in inexorable decline.

Still, there are things that he will seek to bring home from the negotiating table. Mr. Xi most likely wants to avoid any more tariffs on Chinese products, prevent the United States from repealing China’s permanent normal trade relations status and persuade Mr. Trump to ease restrictions on China’s access to advanced American technology. Beijing’s strategy appears to be to use carrots and sticks to buy time and fend off U.S. pressure on all these fronts.

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The carrots could include a willingness to increase its purchases of U.S. energy and agricultural products, make substantial investments in the United States that will create jobs, take back Chinese nationals who are in America illegally, step up efforts to stop the flow of chemicals that are used to produce fentanyl, and at least offer to help secure peace in Ukraine.

There are several concrete things Mr. Trump can ask for. He should insist that China stop supporting Russia’s defense industrial base, which powers the war in Ukraine and poses a long-term threat to European and trans-Atlantic security. If Mr. Xi refuses, Mr. Trump should impose biting sanctions on Chinese companies and banks that help Moscow acquire drones, satellites and other important technologies. He will have to get Europe to do so as well.

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